Photo: Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the memorandum of understanding signing with Somaliland. Credit: Facebook/Ethiopian News Agency
Tensions are rising after Somalia recently accused neighboring Ethiopia of supplying weapons to the breakaway region Puntland, a state in the northeastern part of Somalia. As the two nations spar over an ongoing territorial dispute brought on by Ethiopia signing a 50-year deal with Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia, to establish a naval base and commercial port along 12 miles of its Red Sea coast. Somalia has denounced the deal as an attack on its sovereignty and territorial integrity while Ethiopia has argued securing a sea port is critical for the economic development for the landlocked country.
These developments are affecting the broader region, with Egypt forging alliances with Somalia as part of its own dispute with Ethiopia over how to harness the power of the Nile River. Both issues have injected new tensions into the Horn of Africa which for several years has dealt with regional instability — civil wars, sanctions, proxy wars — stemming from the contradictions of Africa’s struggle against neocolonialism.
Ethiopia’s deal to access a Red Sea port in Somaliland
At the beginning of this year, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum of understanding securing a 50-year lease that grants port access to the Red Sea. The MoU gives Ethiopia an outlet to maritime power and commercial ports in exchange for Ethiopia’s support to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. In a televised speech back in October 2023, Ahmed laid the question of Red Sea access as an “existential issue.” Alleging that commercial access to ports in several neighboring countries was not enough to secure sustainable economic growth.
This reveals that the issue is not access to seaports in general, but over the terms of trade. Ethiopia is prioritizing access to seaports where it has dominance and power projection into a vital global waterway. For Somalia, which has been dealing with a sort of “Balkanization” since 1991, Ethiopia’s move seriously raises the possibility of the dismemberment of the country, which has led them to strengthen alliances with Eritrea, Turkey and, most notably, Egypt.
Egypt has an ongoing dispute with Ethiopia regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a vast hydroelectric dam built between 2011-2023. Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan for several years have engaged in negotiations over how to balance the water needs of all three countries with the major development potential of the dam, but have yet to find a resolution. Ethiopia has moved forward with operationalizing the dam, pointing to the dire need for poverty alleviation and the lack of evidence of major impacts on regional agriculture.
Egypt openly criticized the MoU signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland and has proposed sending 10,000 troops to Somalia, with half joining an African Union peacekeeping force and the other half deployed under a bilateral agreement with Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. Additionally, Egypt delivered weaponry to Somalia including anti-aircraft guns and artillery on Sept. 22. This heightens tensions by raising the potential of Egyptian troops on the Ethiopian border in the midst of a dispute where Egypt had previously alluded to potential military action.
Eliminating regional instability and building cooperation
The Horn of Africa, and the broader Nile Basin, sit at the crossroads of global commerce and contain great human and material resources. Western imperialist powers, since the 19th century have sought to colonize and control the Horn. In the 21st century, the same powers have the same interests. Regional elites are creating openings for exploitation by outside interests, especially U.S. imperialism, by pursuing power politics over shared dialogue.
The possibility of significant poverty alleviation and development can only be rooted in the complementarity of the various Horn-Nile Basin nations. Only a politics based on building unity and mutually beneficial cooperation can deliver on the potential of the Horn of Africa and its peoples. Regionally, Eritrea is the main voice for this sort of vision, earning sanctions and isolation maneuvers from the U.S. Whether the Horn of Africa can find greater unity, given its location and riches, will contribute significantly to whether or not U.S. imperialism can maintain its stranglehold on the globe deep into another century.
