Although much of what we read and hear about climate change seems to make reference to a far-off dystopian future, climate scientists—who are far from divided about the question of climate change in general—are finding more and more that climate change is not only taking place on a time scale much shorter than previously anticipated but is a process essentially underway now.
One key indicator showing that climate change is a tragic-but-immediate reality came just this month, as records came in showing July 2015 to be the hottest month on record. Moreover, 2015 in general continues to break records as the hottest year on record. That might sound alarmist, but the point is that climate scientists are alarmed.
So while TV pundits and politicians might scoff and mumble about “alarmism” and wring their hands over the absence of “moderation” in the climate debate, science has spoken: it’s time to be alarmed.
The reason why the weather data about last July is so shocking has less to do with the mere fact that last month was the warmest month on record and more to do with by how much July 2015 broke the record. Whereas the records for hottest and coldest months have usually been set by less than 1/20th of a degree, last July broke the record by 1/7th of a degree. That may seem small, but consider that the last ice age (sometimes referred to as the Little Ice Age) was marked by a global temperature difference of approximately 1 degree, and was marked by massive crop failures and resulting famines. In other words, while a change in temperature of 1/7th of a degree might seem small in absolute terms, it is titanic in terms of world temperatures.
Notably, it signals the truth of predictions that sea level rises will take place on a timescale much shorter than before: where before, sea level rises over time were measured by 100 or 200 years, scientists and, importantly, policymakers are now discussing sea level rises in terms of decades. Climate change’s menacing combination of reality and severity even led the Pentagon to name climate change as one of the greatest single threats to global security, writing, “Global climate change will have wide-ranging implications for U.S. national security interests over the foreseeable future because it will aggravate existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions—that threaten domestic stability in a number of countries.”
It is rare to read such stark words coming from the Pentagon regarding “trendy” issues like climate change, but world events have forced politicians’ hands, notably with the California drought reaching disaster proportions. The California drought shows, though, that climate change places weight on social pressure points like few other issues can. Reduced rainfall has, for example, driven up food prices on the one hand and caused turmoil in the agricultural sector on the other. Put plainly, climate change makes all economic activity more difficult since it negatively affects the environment we take all of our resources from.
That’s the only reason why politicians are responding and it’s why they aren’t committed to reversing climate change in the way that poor and working people are. When politicians read about the California drought, they see “declining profits,” not “high food prices squeezing my income.” When capitalist politicians read “rising sea levels” they see “instability and a possible refugee crisis,” not “homes being swallowed by the sea.” They’re not committed to reversing climate change because they are under threat in a direct way. Poor, working and oppressed people are committed to environmental defense because it is self-defense.
