Analysis

Is the U.S.-installed Afghan government doomed?

Photo: U.S. jet at Bagram airbase prior to last week’s withdrawal. Credit — National Archives

The Pentagon’s Central Command — responsible for U.S. forces in the Middle East — announced yesterday that 90 percent of its soldiers and support personnel have left Afghanistan. This retreat is occurring against the backdrop of intensifying offensives by the Taliban across the north of Afghanistan, a region which has long been known as a stronghold of forces aligned with the United States. The Taliban currently control or contest approximately three quarters of the country’s 421 districts. 

The U.S. military’s hasty retreat from the notorious Bagram airbase July 2 served as yet another indication that the Afghan government, installed and propped up by the United States over the course of two decades of occupation, is teetering on the edge of collapse. U.S. forces left under the cover of night without bothering to communicate their departure to the Afghan officer tasked with overseeing the transition of the airbase into Afghan Army hands. Departing in such a manner clearly illustrates the arrogant, colonial attitude of the occupying forces in addition to the weakness of the Afghan government’s position. 

In many respects the story of Bagram air base is a microcosm of the U.S. war effort against the Afghan people. Bagram was taken over by the United States after the 2001 invasion. At the time, the Taliban were forced to retreat from major cities to the countryside. The airbase became the nerve center of the U.S. war effort, directing the colonial-style occupation of the country and housing Special Forces used to hunt down Taliban fighters. A deadly drone program was orchestrated out of the airbase. 

Bagram has also gained the reputation of housing one of the most brutal prisons on the planet, housing 5,000 inmates. The CIA ran an infamous torture chamber at Bagram airbase known as “The Salt Pit.” A 2014 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee revealed a long list of disgusting crimes against humanity which took place at this CIA black site. Inmates were waterboarded, slammed against walls, subjected to humiliating sexual degradation, subjected to noise torture and sleep deprivation, forced to endure freezing temperatures in isolated cells without clothes, among many more acts of depravity. Survivors of this brutal regime of torture testified to life changing physical and psychological trauma. Nobody has been prosecuted for these crimes.

The greatest impediment to the military success of the Taliban was the overwhelming air supremacy enjoyed by the U.S. and the Afghan puppet government. The ability to rapidly deploy combat forces by helicopter, drone strikes, and bombing campaigns had limited the effectiveness of Taliban fighters outside of their rural base areas. A massive imbalance of power in the airwar has allowed the unpopular Afghan government to survive for as long as it has. The withdrawal of U.S. contractors and pilots is a fatal blow to the Afghan air force. The Afghan military cannot repair the U.S.-made equipment on their own.

Morale within the Afghan military has sunk to an abysmal level, as exemplified by the rout of 1,600 soldiers who fled into neighboring Tajikistan in recent weeks. Defeat after defeat for the Afghan military is creating a situation in the country where defections and collapse are widespread. The northern offensive by the Taliban indicates that they have the initiative, and in many cases opposing Afghan government forces put up little to no resistance to an attack.

Hardline militarists in the United States are pointing to the string of Taliban victories over the Afghan government as reason to call off the withdrawal, arguing that the Taliban cannot be allowed to take over the country. But the Taliban’s strength comes less from popular support for their ultra-reactionary political program than it does from their ability to strike blows against the Afghan government, widely recognized as illegitimate and a puppet of the United States. And now it is becoming increasingly clear that the United States is giving up on the government they themselves installed.

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