The plot publicized by Attorney General Eric Holder
reads like the script of a bad Hollywood spy movie. An evil force, the Quds
Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, decides to carry out an
assassination of a Saudi diplomat. Instead of doing it on Iranian soil, where
Saudi Arabia has an embassy, or in dozens of much more accessible countries in
the Persian/Arabian Gulf region, the Quds Force chooses to assassinate a
diplomat, Adel Al-Jubeir, in
the United States. The Quds Force
has never carried out operations on U.S. soil and has no cells there, so it
employs the services of Manssor Arbabsiar, the cousin of a Quds Force member,
who will head the entire operation.
The
cousin, a 56-year-old Iranian-born U.S. citizen living in Texas, has no
military or intelligence background and over the years has been an automobile
salesperson and small restaurant owner. Having no capability to carry out the
assassination on his own, Arbabsiar decides to outsource the job to a Mexican
drug cartel, Los Zetas, which operates primarily in Mexico and bordering areas.
But the
people Arbabsiar thought were with the Los Zetas cartel turn out to be heroic
U.S. government agents, who turn in Arbabsiar. Hence, a secret assassination
plot is exposed and the free world is saved from another murderous plan by an
evil force. Hollywood made movies pitting James Bond against evil forces—the
Russians, the Chinese, the Arabs—that had more believable plots than this one
presented by the Obama administration.
While
rarely questioning the authenticity of the U.S. government claim, mainstream
analysts and commentators have characterized the alleged plot as “bizzare,”
“outrageous” and even “preposterous.” Foreign Policy magazine calls it “the
worst plot ever.” U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton actually uses the
outrageousness of the “plot” as evidence that it must be true, saying: “Nobody
could make that up, right?”
Since
none of the published evidence can be independently verified, it is not
possible to determine whether a plot existed or if the whole story was
concocted by U.S. secret services. There have been several instances
when FBI agents, rather than discovering actual plots planned by others, have
planned an operation, coaxed unstable or disgruntled individuals into joining
in, and then implicated those individuals—perpetrators in operations that would
not have existed had it not been for U.S. government agents. If what is being announced as a plot ever existed,
it is possible that it was the result of a similar frame-up by government
agents
What
would the Iranian government gain?
What can
be established more definitively is whether this plot could have been ordered
by the Iranian government. When analyzing political assassinations, in fact
when analyzing crimes of all sorts, an elementary starting point is to
establish the motive. Why would the alleged perpetrator have wanted to carry
out the crime? In this case, what would the Iranian government gain from this
plot, had it been carried out successfully?
While the
relationship between the two countries has never been cordial, Iran has for
years attempted to normalize diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, and has
met some success in this regard. After Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain to
help the Khalifa monarchy violently repress the mass movement, the relations
between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated. Still, the Islamic Republic was
careful not to escalate the conflict.
Surrounded
by U.S.-occupied Iraq and Afghanistan and U.S. client states including Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Oman and others, Iran is in no position to seek
confrontation with these states. Even if Iran were to escalate its conflict
with Saudi Arabia, how would the assassination of one Saudi diplomat help its
cause? And even if somehow Iran had decided that killing a Saudi diplomat would
be in its interests, why would it want to carry out the assassination on U.S.
soil?
Iran is
now under four rounds of international sanctions. Since the years of the Bush
administration, the U.S. has threatened Iran with everything, including
bombings and refusing to rule out a nuclear attack. On Oct. 13, President Obama
offered a slight variation of “All options are on the table,” the Bush-era
mantra. Obama said, “No options are off the table.”
Iran’s
military budget less than 1 percent of U.S. outlays for war
The
military budget of Iran is a little over $9 billion, 1.8 percent of its
GDP. This is only 1.3 percent of the U.S. military budget of nearly $700
billion, and more accurately less than 1 percent of the real U.S. military
budget, which should include the costs of the occupations of Iraq and
Afghanistan, as well as a slew of military outlays under other headings.
Why would Iran pick a fight with a country that has
a military 60 to 100 times its own? Even if for some reason Iran were dead set
on assassinating a Saudi official, why would it provide the United States a
perfect tool with which to ratchet up the pressure on Iran in the U.N. Security
Council?
Looking at the motives Washington has makes the
matter more clear. As the Washington Post noted, the plot has “handed the United States an opportunity to
undermine Tehran at a moment when U.S. officials believe the Iranian regime is
especially vulnerable.” On Oct. 13, Obama stated, “We’re going to
continue … to mobilize the international community to make sure that Iran is
further and further isolated and pays a price for this kind of behavior.”
The reality is that Washington badly wants to further tighten the
sanctions against Iran. Four rounds of sanctions have been anything but
“crippling” to the Iranian economy. In early summer of this year, a team of IMF
economists visited Iran and compiled a report. Among other things, the report
indicated that Iran’s economic growth had accelerated to 3.2 percent in
2010-2011, up from a 0.6 percent growth the previous two years.
Washington’s real agenda: regime change
It is more than the nuclear issue. Washington’s real agenda is regime
change in Iran. In the absence of a viable military option, Washington is
hoping to make Iran’s economy collapse, possibly opening the path for a color
revolution led by the privileged sectors of society, the same sectors that
anchored the 2009 anti-government demonstrations.
Washington needs to pressure China and Russia into going along with a
fifth round of sanctions against Iran. Already, the U.S. has sent agents to
Beijing and Moscow to present “evidence” of Iran’s alleged terror plot.
In the ongoing confrontation between Tehran and Washington, there is
no question that, as a result of the alleged plot, Washington gains and Tehran
loses. The extent of Washington’s gain and Tehran’s loss will be determined by
how much Washington can succeed in turning the story of the alleged plot into
another round of harsher sanctions against Iran. So, again, why would Iran take
part in an assassination plot that, successful or not, would hand Washington a
victory and Tehran a defeat?
Serial assassinations of Iranian scientists
Washington knows a thing or two about political assassinations. On
July 23, Iranian nuclear physicist Dr. Darioush Rezaie was shot in the throat
and killed in front of his daughter’s kindergarten in Tehran. On Nov. 29, 2010,
nuclear scientist Dr. Majid Shahriari was assassinated on his way to work,
while another scientist, Dr. Fereidoon Abassi, narrowly escaped a simultaneous
assassination attempt. In January 2010, another nuclear scientist, Professor
Massoud Ali-Mohammadi, was murdered with an improvised explosive device. In
2007, nuclear scientist Ardeshir Hassanpour was killed by poison.
These assassinations have all been carried out professionally, leaving
no solid evidence behind. However, one does not need the benefit of forensic
evidence to know who is behind them. The fact that there have been a series of
assassinations, including simultaneous attempts, rules out the possibility of
personal or family motives for the murders. The fact that no faction of the
Islamic Republic is opposed to the nuclear energy program rules out the
possibility of a factional conflict leading to assassinations. The only force
that would have the motive and the capability to carry out such a systematic
campaign of assassinations is the United States, possibly aided by its junior
partners, including Israel.
While the business media propagate the bizarre story of the alleged
Iranian terror plot, they fail to mention the very relevant story of the serial
murder of Iranian nuclear scientists, more than likely victims of U.S./Israeli
hit squads.
It remains to be seen whether Washington will be successful in turning
this alleged plot into a concrete victory in further pressuring Iran. The one
thing that is clear is that the U.S. government, whether headed by Republicans
or Democrats, has pursued a variety of tactics to weaken and overthrow
independent states in the Middle East and elsewhere. Conversely, the people
continue to struggle against Washington’s invasions, occupations, coups,
sanctions and softer methods aimed at bringing the region’s resources and
markets under imperialist control.
