Tensions rose as Turkey piled up military forces at multiple locations near the Syrian border. According to local media reports, heavy weaponry and tanks have been deployed in Kilis which is situated very close to Afrin on the Syrian side. 55 thousand troops and rocket batteries have also been stationed in Karkamış, another border town facing Jarabulus on the Syrian side. Jarabulus is currently under the control of the Islamic State and is situated between the Kurdish towns of Kobani and Afrin.
In recent days, the pro-government media in Turkey have been beating the war-drums, speculating that the ruling Justice and Development Party, AKP, is getting ready for a cross-border military operation with the aim of establishing a security zone within Syria itself.
On June 26, speaking one day after YPG (People’s Protection Units), the armed wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) drove back the ISIS militants from Kurdish-held Kobani, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: “I say to the international community that whatever price must be paid, we will never allow the establishment of a new state on our southern frontier in the north of Syria… We will not let the demographics of the region to be changed.”
On June 29, a statement released after the National Security Council meeting had a similar tone to Erdogan, expressing concern about the threat of terrorism targeting civilians as well as recent actions aiming to change the demographics of the region. The ‘actions’ in the statement is an apparent reference to the recent gains by YPG against ISIS in the region. One such recent gain by YPG is the capture of the town of Tal Abyad. Located right on the Turkish border, Tal Abyad was of strategic importance for the Islamic State as it served as a critical supply route as well as a crossing point for ISIS fighters from Turkey into Syria. Control of Tal Abyad established a corridor between the Kurdish-held towns of Jazeera and Kobani.
On July 3, speaking on a TV program, AKP’s Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: “We have taken measures against security threats across the border. It is Turkey which has taken the most clear position against the terrorist organization ISIS. Meanwhile, we also have continued supporting the moderate opposition in Syria… We would not hesitate to act in case a situation threatening the security of Turkey arises.”
It is clear from this fake “security” rhetoric that Turkey’s ruling AKP would like to use the threat of ISIS as a pretext for a military intervention to establish a so-called “security zone” from Jarabulus westward to Afrin. Given AKP’s past role in sponsoring jihadist groups including ISIS, it doesn’t take much to realize that this most recent push for military action by AKP has nothing to do with their concerns about ISIS.
While preventing the Kurdish PYD/YPG from gaining control over a contiguous territory from Jazeera in the east to Afrin in the west, this “security zone” would indeed serve as a safe haven for various Islamist groups, ironically including the Islamic State itself, as well as others such as Al-Nusrah, Ahrah Al-Sham and Ansar Al-Sharia, which are engaged in a fierce fight against the Syrian government forces for the control of northern Aleppo, which is not far from the region.
Despite the recent military mobilization by Turkey, the likelihood of a direct military involvement of in Syria still seems low.
Firstly, having recently lost majority in the parliament after the elections in June, it would be a big challenge for AKP to pass a resolution for war in the parliament. Additionally, despite the continuous anti-Kurdish as well as anti-Assad government propaganda in the pro-AKP media, majority of the people of Turkey vehemently opposes war with Syria. Thirdly, Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) which has waged a 30-year insurgency in Turkey released a statement stating that any military involvement in northern Syria by Turkey would be interpreted as an attack on all Kurds and PKK would retaliate back, turning all of Turkey into a battlefield. Lastly, Russia has recently reiterated its full support of the government of Syria in its fight against all foreign forces. Given all these factors, the top military officials of Turkey are well aware of the risks of such a military adventure pushed by AKP and they seem reluctant to follow AKP’s plans.
AKP hands off Syria!
