Following the latest clashes in Sana’a between Houthi rebels and the government, and the collapse of a deal granting most if not all of the Houthi demands, Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi and his cabinet have resigned, leaving a huge question mark as to the future of Yemen, the poorest yet most populous country in the region. In 2012, Hadi had replaced Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced out by a people’s movement after 33 years in office.
In the face of this unstable situation, the U.S. has at least temporarily suspended “counter-terrorism” operations with Yemen.
Houthi takeover
The Houthis essentially took over Sana’a, the northern capital city, in September 2014. The Houthi rebellion started more than 10 years ago and had reached a ceasefire in 2010. What prompted the resurgence was the end of fuel subsidies in July 2014.
Once in the capital, they forced the resignation of Prime Minister Mohammed Basindwa. What were they seeking? While their rebellion has always been about greater cultural and religious autonomy for their own group, the demands of the recent take-over have focused on changes to the constitution: “The latest violence appears to have been sparked by Houthi rejection of a draft constitution that divides the country into six federal regions, a move they fear would dilute their power. Houthi leaders accused Hadi of reneging on the U.N.-brokered deal, which promised better representation on a commission to oversee the drafting of a new constitution.” (Al-Jazeera)
On Jan. 23, while thousands of Yemenis in Sana’a rallied in support of the Houthis, chanting anti-U.S. and anti-Israel slogans and calling for the unity of Yemen, thousands in southern cities Aden and Taiz rallied against what was called a Houthi coup (Al-Jazeera)
Context: Four way struggle
These latest developments in Yemen must be understood in the context of the ongoing four-way struggle going on in the country. In the north, we have the Houthis, nominally Shi’ites, who are members of the Zaydi sect of Islam, unique to Yemen. The imamate that ruled north Yemen until the Republican Revolution in 1962 was a Zaydi imamate. They are being supported by Iran and oppose the U.S. presence and intervention in their country. In the South, former site of the Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen, there is a socialist independence movement. In the center of Yemen, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula plays a role. AQAP has claimed responsibility for the massacre at Charlie Hebdo in Paris. The fourth group is the central government, now possibly defunct, which while quite weak, has collaborated with imperialism and allowed the use of drones and other U.S. attacks on the Yemeni people, ostensibly in the service of the “war on terror.” Suffice to say that each group is opposed to each of the others.
U.S. imperialism is quite concerned about the latest turn of events. The New York Times and other imperialist sources emphasize that the Houthis are Shi’ite, and are attempting to cast the conflict in Yemen as a sectarian one. However, the situation is much more complex. The Houthis are a tribal grouping from the North. Even before the ousting of Saleh, tribes represented the real power base in Yemen; Saleh was associated with the largest tribal group, and was known for his skill in buying off tribal leaderships and playing one tribe off against the other. It was often said the power of the central government existed in the major cities such as Sana’a, Aden and Taizz, and only extended as far as the paved roads, if that far.
Meanwhile, it should not be forgotten that the south of Yemen, formerly a British colony, was after liberation a socialist republic, until the two Yemens reunited in 1990. A civil war ensued between north and south in 1994, and the capitalist north emerged victorious. Since then, the impact of globalization and neo-liberalism has been quite visible in this culturally rich but financially impoverished and underdeveloped nation.
The “Arab Spring”-inspired struggle for democracy in Yemen brought tribesmen into the city where they participated in the Taghyir (Change) Square tent city. Since the ousting of Saleh, the struggle has continued, with civil wars raging in the north (with the Houthis) and in the south (with the southern movement for socialism).
Legal, constitutional takeover?
It is interesting that the Houthis are taking pains to avoid appearing to be insurrectionary. Instead, they appear to continue their focus on change within constitutional, legal limits, even as they have militarily occupied checkpoints in Sana’a, engaged in skirmishes with troops loyal to the Hadi government, even kidnapping a presidential aide in the capital. Despite all this, the Houthis have not moved to step into the power vacuum created by the resignation of President Hadi. Instead, they are waiting for the parliament to accept his resignation, per the constitution of Yemen.
This is a dangerous turning point for Yemen. Already, the U.S. has its fingers deep in the country via semi-covert military operations and drone bombings, supposedly focused on AQAP. While AQAP itself is probably not particularly popular in Yemen, the drone bombings are despised, because they have notoriously targeted and killed civilians. What is next? If the U.S. cannot find a “cooperative” government in Yemen to enable these war crimes, what will Washington do? The New York Times is urging the U.S. to reach out to the Houthis, “via back channels” to find common cause against AQAP. That is one possible scenario. Another scenario would be for imperialism to continue to operate with impunity in Yemen, given the lack of a strong central government able to defend the Yemeni people against imperialism.
On the other hand, the imperialists may be reluctant to overtly intervene on the ground in Yemen, given that north Yemen has a long history of being unconquerable, particularly the northern highlands, where the Houthis have their base.
In any case, for progressive people it is important to defend the right of the Yemeni people to self-determination and to live free from imperialist intervention.
