Egypt’s unfinished revolution is going through rapid developments, with a dizzying array of class forces engaged in a struggle that will determine the fate of the country. The military’s removal of Mohamed Morsi on July 3 followed days of mass protests demanding that he step down from the presidency. The huge protests, numbering in the millions, were by some accounts even larger than the ones that led to the overthrow of U.S. client Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
On July 3, the army’s top commander, Gen. Abdul Fatah Saeed al-Sisi, removed Morsi from power and appointed Hazem Al Beblawi as interim prime minister. Beblawi has since formed a cabinet that will serve until the next elections. He has also promoted al-Sisi to first deputy prime minister in addition to keeping him in his post as defense minister. Among other noteworthy members of Beblawi’s cabinet is Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who will serve under the interim president, Adly Mansour.
That Egyptians have been at Tahrir Square and all over the streets in the millions for over two years now is an encouraging development. Mass consciousness escalates rapidly through struggle. U.S. mass media tell us in a thousand ways that demonstrations are a waste of time and protests do not change anything. Instead, they tell us, you can only make change through the ballot box. Ruling class propagandists spread this idea not because they believe it is true but precisely because they know it is not—precisely because the sight of the masses in the streets, the subjects of history, frightens them.
Does protest make a difference?
Egypt gives a resounding rebuttal to this lie. In two years, Egyptians have overthrown two leaders through mass demonstrations. The first was the 30-year dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak, a regime with a strong military and police and even stronger support from imperialist powers. Mubarak seemed invincible, but not to the masses that exercised their power to change history.
Even when revolutionary movements do not ultimately achieve their goals, they have the effect of energizing thousands of people to become organizers, possibly laying the foundations for building a vanguard working-class party.
As the people have been in the streets and recognizes their power, the Egyptian ruling class has to take the power of the people into consideration in its every move. Public opinion in and of itself may not be a superpower, or a power at all, but when that public opinion translates into militant street actions raising demands, that is a force the ruling class has to reckon with.
As much as the ongoing Egyptian revolution has inspired people around the world, it confronts serious challenges limiting its potential for making revolutionary gains. The main challenge is one of leadership, evident from the wide array of capitalist politicians lined up to put their stamp on the revolution.
Challenge of leadership in Egypt’s revolution
In large part due to the severe repression of the Mubarak dictatorship, there is currently no left pole strong enough to provide working-class leadership to the revolution. Even bourgeois-national forces do not have a strong organizational presence in the mass movement. Under the leadership of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt stood up to the imperialists in nationalizing the Suez Canal and charting an independent path for development. Nasser’s nationalist resistance became an inspiration not just for the Arab world but for all colonized and neo-colonized peoples fighting for independence around the world.
The organizational weakness of revolutionary organizations has led to a broad ideological weakness in the movement. It is not simply that the masses are not organized under a strong revolutionary leadership. It is also that the main unifying demand of the mass movement has been a demand for democracy—individual and political freedoms.
These freedoms are important and, if secured, can be an important gain. Socialists, more than any other class force, need this breathing space because they are often the first targets of state repression. Also, opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood’s reactionary constitution, which degrades women and lays the basis for the oppression of religious minorities, is a progressive demand.
However, if not taken further, these demands alone open the door for opportunist capitalist politicians to put their stamp of leadership on the mass movement. Much of what unfolds in the coming months and years hinges on this question: Will the demands of the mass movement stay within the bounds of bourgeois democratic rights, and hence seek their realization through electing candidates in Western style elections? Or will the continuation of mass struggle result in the movement raising demands that require a fundamental change in the status quo and radical change in society?
Right now, the protest movement of the millions has pushed Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood out of power. It sees the intervention by the military as a positive development. After all, Morsi is out and his attempt at saving the system with no fundamental change has failed. Despite some differences from Mubarak’s regime, the Brotherhood’s management of state affairs did not come close to making fundamental change.
Military sacrifices Morsi to save the system
The military is hoping to gain control of the situation to save the system. The military, still Mubarak’s military, never had cordial relationships with the Brotherhood and Morsi. So it responded to the millions-strong demonstrations by removing Morsi by force. It is not that the military wants to rule directly. What al-Sisi and other military commanders want to do is to channel mass protests in a direction that is safe for the system. The leadership of individuals like ElBaradei, the former head of the IAEA and a person of international prominence, is an acceptable alternative for the military, as is the case for various other “democratic” politicians and technocrats.
But the fact is that a capitalist politician will not be able to resolve the fundamental problems of society. Egypt’s debt is a staggering 88 percent of its GDP—that is, 88 percent of the value of all the goods and services produced in the country for an entire year. The problem is not that Morsi mismanaged the economy. Mubarak’s regime was already deeply in debt and the economy already in dire straits. With the collapse in tourism revenues and significant capital flight over the past two years, it is not good management that can solve the problems of society for the working class.
It will take a revolutionary path, led by socialists, to solve the contradictions society faces. What could begin to address the economic problems would be the refusal to pay the international financial institutions, and expropriation of capital to benefit Egypt’s working class. And that is not something that the “right” person elected to office can do. Large loans from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies will not fundamentally change the state of affairs.
There are several possibilities for the course of future developments. It is possible that the crisis for the ruling class will continue. Elections could go forward and whichever capitalist candidate gets elected will not be able to meet the people’s demands, no matter how democratic the elections and no matter how many political rights are enjoyed by the population. And the masses could be back in the streets. This, from a revolutionary perspective, is the best possibility, because it leaves open the possibility of the revolution advancing further.
There is also a possibility that the military and the old ruling elite can manage to re-establish the old order and repress the movement. For instance, if the Muslim Brotherhood engages in a long, intense struggle against the military, protracted civil war could be possible.
Since the military removed the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Morsi from power on July 3, supporters have staged protests and sit-ins in many cities across Egypt. On July 16, seven supporters of ousted president Morsi were killed by the police. A week earlier, on July 9, as 1,000 people protested outside the Republican Guard headquarters, over 50 protesters were killed by the security forces. The Brotherhood has called for an uprising against the military.
Lessons of the struggle in Egypt
A long confrontation with the military on one side and Brotherhood supporters on the other could yield a situation where the people in the streets right now will be sidelined. And, of course, there are many other possibilities for future developments, as class struggle is a dynamic process.
Revolutionary socialists, struggling to make the working class the ruling class, must always learn the appropriate lessons from each revolutionary movement, in victory and in defeat. We can learn many lessons from the Egyptian revolution. But the key lesson is that we should strive to make sure that the vanguard party already exists by the time a revolutionary situation comes around.
The vanguard party, a party with skills and consciousness that can exercise its leadership, must already have been formed through struggle because by the time a revolutionary situation occurs, there is usually not enough time. Building a revolutionary working-class party is the task of revolutionary socialists not just during revolutionary times, but most critically during non-revolutionary periods.
