The idea that Trump is a pro-peace president was once again proven to be a complete fraud when he ordered U.S. warplanes to drop the largest conventional bombs on Earth in an unprovoked attack on Iran last Saturday. But Trump was not able to move forward with an open-ended war aimed at installing a puppet government to rule the country – instead he had to accept a ceasefire and ensure that Israel respected it. Public opinion in the United States is too firmly opposed to another forever war in the Middle East. And the people of Iran did not break under the pressure of the U.S.-Israeli war in a way that would pave the way for regime change.
The vast majority of people in the United States do not want to see another endless war. Trump is very much aware of this fact, and won the presidency to a significant degree because he postured as an anti-war candidate on the campaign trail (in 2016 and 2024). This was a major restraining factor on his ability to escalate to an all-out, direct U.S. war on Iran.
Part of this pressure came from the isolationist right wing – proponents of the so-called “America first” doctrine that has become increasingly influential among Republican Party politicians. But opposition was also much broader than that. Since the disastrous occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan, the idea of starting an open-ended war has become increasingly unpopular among people of all political views. This is especially pronounced when it comes to conflicts that have a strong possibility of turning into a “boots on the ground” invasion.
People are tired of seeing so much of the country’s wealth sucked up by the war machine to be used on death and destruction rather than meeting human needs like housing, healthcare, education and jobs. There is a growing sense that the “forever wars” just serve the interests of weapons manufacturing corporations. And after George W. Bush’s infamous “weapons of mass destruction” fraud, there is widespread recognition of the fact that politicians lie in the hopes of dragging the country to war. Trump knew that his presidency could become defined, and sunk, by initiating a full-scale war against Iran.
At the same time, the war makers could see that they were not on the verge of overthrowing the government in Iran. Regime change has been a goal of the Pentagon and State Department establishment for decades, ever since the 1979 revolution overthrew the U.S.-backed dictatorship that ruled the country since a 1953 CIA-orchestrated coup. The managers of U.S. empire have long dreamed about bringing this oil rich country – and one with an economy and population large enough to challenge U.S. regional domination – back under their control. They hoped that the devastation of a bombing campaign, coupled with the accumulated impact of years of suffocating sanctions, would create a social crisis inside of Iran that would lead to street protests and the overthrow of the government.
But what happened inside Iranian society was actually the opposite. People rallied to the defense of their country, even if they disagree with the policies of the government. This was clearly an act of unprovoked aggression by the hated, genocidal Israeli regime. Rather than capitulating, Iranians wanted to defend their country’s independence.
Unable to quickly spark a political crisis – and unwilling to deal with the political fallout at home of using the type of massive, open-ended military force that would be required – the Trump administration instead opted to end the fighting while declaring victory on the basis of the dubious claim that it had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear research capacity. Trump is trying to spin this as evidence of both his strength and his commitment to peace. But the reality is that he backed down.
But Trump’s war mongering instincts could kick in at any time. We need to build a sustained anti-war struggle in the United States. As we have seen in the past weeks, when people make their voices heard, it can change the course of events in dramatic ways.
