Photo: The historic Nov. 4, 2023 national march on Washington that brought 500,000 people into the streets to demand an end to the genocide
Yesterday’s ceasefire announcement has been met with waves of celebration in Gaza and across the world. Scenes of jubilation emerged immediately after the announcement as the people of Gaza streamed into the streets, surrounded by the rubble of the genocide. Journalist Anas Jamal, reporting live on Aljazeera, removed his helmet and press vest for the first time in 15 months, and as he paid homage to his martyred colleagues, was carried away on the shoulders of a cheering crowd.
But even on the cusp of a ceasefire, Israel remains insistent upon death and destruction. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed by ongoing Israeli bombing since the ceasefire announcement, and Israel, delaying their official approval, scheduled security cabinet vote scheduled for tomorrow, continuing their genocidal assault across Gaza and the West Bank. While the mediators of the agreement insist that this delay will not disrupt the implementation of the ceasefire beginning on January 19, the truth of this claim remains to be seen.
Even as Israel attempts to maneuver in the final stages, the long-awaited ceasefire agreement, announced yesterday by the Qatari Foreign Minister, marks an achievement that cannot be overstated for the Palestinian people who have withstood the most brutal violence the world has witnessed in recent history.
It is impossible to truly draw a picture of the level of devastation that Gaza has endured over the past 465 days. Some estimates project that 16 percent of the population of Gaza has been killed. The exact number is impossible to determine while many bodies are still stuck under the rubble and recovery efforts are hampered by ongoing bombing. Almost all of Gaza’s homes and residential buildings have been destroyed as well as over 80 percent of all commercial facilities, all universities, and the vast majority of schools and mosques. Israeli attacks have rendered water facilities and hospitals non-functional. There are almost no vehicles left in the occupied territory; the people of Gaza are now using mule-drawn carts for transportation. Almost the entire population has been displaced more than once—the majority have been displaced many times, and forced to survive in makeshift tents in the harshness of winter, more children have lost their lives to the cold. The U.S.-Israeli total siege on the north of Gaza, accompanied by mass and indiscriminate kidnapping of Palestinian men, resulted in horrifying scenes of mass starvation and torture. And to carry this out, it has required more than 28 billion dollars of U.S. military aid to Israel, and more than 6 times the amount of bombs dropped on Hiroshima were unleashed on the tiny, 141-square-mile territory.
And all of this on top of more than 16 years of blockade and decades of imperialist war and aggression, with routine Israeli ‘mowing-the-lawn’ operations attempting to cut down the resistance. The courage, bravery, and steadfastness of the Palestinian people who have remained resilient through it all is even more difficult to capture in words. This oppressed, blockaded, and occupied people, without external military support, still managed to not only survive the genocide, but also prevent the U.S.-Israeli project from achieving its military goals. Even outgoing secretary of state Anthony Blinken, in his recent remarks to the Atlantic Council, admitted “… Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone…Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost.”
U.S. and Israeli politicians and media outlets have framed this agreement in a variety of ways. Both Biden and Trump have claimed the ceasefire as their achievement. Biden in his remarks yesterday assured the American public that he and Trump are working together “as a team.” The Israeli media and establishment has generally, except for a small section, expressed caution and in some cases condemned the agreement — the ceasefire required Israel to make concessions it had previously refused to even consider and while only the extreme, fascist section of the Israeli political arena is declaring that these concessions amount to a defeat, this sentiment is evident to the Israeli public. But both the U.S. and Israeli mainstream media, in its majority, claims that this ceasefire was only possible after significant weakening of Hamas’s political and military capacity.
The ceasefire itself, however, is widely understood to be almost the same draft agreement that was presented in May 2024, and to which Hamas agreed eight months ago. At that time, it was not Hamas that presented the obstacles to reaching an agreement: Netanyahu and his team refused to consider withdrawing from the southern border of Gaza, forcing the negotiations to a standstill. The exact terms of the current agreement are not yet confirmed, but a variety of leaks that have been corroborated by Arab, Israeli, and U.S. media give us a picture of a deal that is almost identical to the previous iteration.
The first phase is available to us in the most clarity. Lasting six weeks, it would include a prisoner exchange, partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and the entrance of aid. Thirty-three Israeli captives would be released for a large number of Palestinian prisoners: 1000 of those prisoners are from the population that was kidnapped from Gaza since Oct. 7. There, they are held without charge or trial in what amount to prison camps, notorious for extreme and constant use of torture. Another portion of prisoners released will be from those who are being held in Israeli prisons with life sentences, often given to those who hold leadership positions in Palestinian organizations.
Regarding withdrawals, the Israeli military will begin to leave the Netzarim Corridor, and by the seventh day, those who have been displaced from the North of Gaza will be allowed to begin returning to their homes. The withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, where the Rafah Crossing is located, would begin in this phase, with full withdrawal complete by the 50th day. Israeli forces would withdraw from all other populated areas of Gaza and be limited to 700 meters from the Gaza border. Up to 600 trucks of aid would be let in on a daily basis through the Rafah crossing from the beginning.
The second and third phases are still unclear — part of the agreement is a commitment to negotiating the terms of the next steps of the ceasefire. In principle, the second phase would entail another round of prisoner exchange, complete withdrawal of the Israeli forces, and a move towards a permanent ceasefire. The third phase would address any final exchange of prisoners or bodies of captives, along with an initiation of a multi-year reconstruction plan.
The agreement under these terms can only indicate that the key difference between May and now is that Netanyahu and the Israeli negotiating team made significant concessions regarding the withdrawal of forces and the eventual permanence of the ceasefire. It was not Hamas that, after another eight months of fighting, returned to negotiations to shift its position. What could have changed in the past eight months to compel Israel to accept this deal?
From one perspective, Israel was not compelled to accept. Lebanon suffered a significant blow, strengthening Netanyahu’s position and, albeit temporarily, fostering greater unity for his regime while bolstering its legitimacy among Israelis, who were eager for a tangible victory. Ending the ongoing military conflict on the northern front, which Netanyahu claimed was diverting attention from Gaza, was a priority. The fall of the Assad government — brought about by the combined actions of the U.S., U.K., Israel, Turkey, and their proxies — along with the destruction of Syria’s military capacity by Israeli airstrikes, cleared the way for Israel to occupy more Syrian land and opened Syrian airspace to the unrestricted movement of U.S.-Israeli aircraft. This allows them to, according to their assessments, strike Iran if they so choose. Meanwhile, the U.S. convened a coalition to intensify strikes on Yemen, the poorest country in the region, which continues to engage in resistance activities in solidarity with Palestine. The U.S. and Israeli imperialist ruling class viewed these developments as a series of successes that finally enabled them to “reshape the Middle East.” In this view, Netanyahu felt strong; it was not necessary to end the war in Gaza.
However, other factors contribute to the current situation and complicate this narrative of imperialist success. Resistance forces have persisted despite the total blockade, ongoing bombings, and the lack of external military support. Over the past week, 14 Israeli soldiers were killed, with their families condemning Netanyahu for allowing them to die in what they called “a war without goals.” As Blinken himself acknowledged, the number of Hamas fighters killed has been offset by the same number of new recruits — militarily defeating Hamas is not possible. The mass killings and injuries over the past 15 months have not succeeded in destroying the resistance, which is not only embodied by Hamas but is deeply ingrained in the fabric of Palestinian society. Netanyahu’s stated goal has not been achieved, and it has become clear to the world that it likely never will be.
In a historic breakthrough, widespread solidarity with Palestine became a central factor driving developments in U.S. politics over the past 15 months. Millions of people took part in demonstrations, civil disobedience, campus encampments, and other acts of protest against the genocide paid for with U.S. tax dollars. While all movements go through ups and downs, the atrocities committed by Israel with its U.S.-supplied arsenal are seared into the consciousness of a huge section of the population. The level of solidarity with the Palestinian people’s struggle for freedom was so intense that it played a major role in forcing a sitting president to abandon his bid for reelection.
In this way, the movement for Palestine has emerged as a major grassroots force, shifting public opinion decisively away from Israel and towards the Palestinian cause, thus isolating the U.S. and Israel on the world stage in terms of diplomatic relations as well as in terms of the battle of ideas. Israel is irrevocably associated with genocide, and individual Israeli citizens experience the consequences of that association when they travel, vacation, or interact with the citizens of other countries. This kind of isolation is unsustainable in the long run.
In this context, the contradictions within Israeli society and its government were only temporarily alleviated by the claimed victories in Lebanon and Syria. Israeli society, as a settler society, aspires to European standards of living; many Israelis even hold second passports. At the same time, it is a highly militarized society where military service is mandatory, and individuals are trained to kill and taught to hate. Reports of soldiers committing brutal acts after killing Palestinians are a testament to this culture. The vast majority of internal political opposition to Netanyahu — no matter their position on the quite narrow spectrum of Israeli politics — has nothing to do with solidarity for the Palestinian people. Even those political figures opposing him from the so-called Israeli left criticize him not for the killings themselves but for their perceived inefficiency.
Despite this, Israeli society is increasingly unwilling to live in constant conditions of war. The economy has taken a significant hit and discontent is growing: 800 parents of Israeli soldiers wrote an open letter last week stating that they will not allow their children to return to their posts, and large numbers of reservists are refusing to report for duty. The Israeli military establishment has also broken with Netanyahu in key ways, most notably with the dismissal of former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant—the architect of a terrorist attack involving thousands of explosives planted in pagers and cell phones destined for Lebanon. Gallant, who, though he has represented the most violent opinions in favor of the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, has pushed for an end to the Gaza conflict, finding it unstrategic and lacking clear objectives in the broader goal of destroying the resistance forces.
There is also the factor of the role of the incoming president Donald Trump. Trump has claimed that the ceasefire’s approval is due to the influence of him and his team—a sentiment echoed in much of the mainstream media and not fully denounced by Biden, who in his remarks yesterday assured the American public that he and Trump are working together ‘as a team.’
The real impact of Trump’s influence is subject to speculation. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s appointee for Special Envoy to the Middle East and billionaire who made his wealth off of ultra-luxury real estate deals, was present at the negotiating table in Doha. Trump pulled him up to the podium at his press conference the day before he left for Doha, and declared that ‘all hell will break loose’ if the Israeli hostages are not returned before he takes office, prompting speculation that he may have used more direct pressure on Netanyahu than the Biden administration had attempted in the past 15 months. Other reports in Israeli media speculate that his ‘special relationship’ with Netanyahu may have facilitated some sort of backdoor agreement: in return for the ceasefire, Trump would agree to support Israel in a reinitiation of the assault in Gaza before all phases are complete, or the annexation of the West Bank, or both.
This extreme scenario is not out of the realm of possibility. Trump was the most aggressively pro-Israeli candidate in his policy decisions and proposals: his move to open the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem and his proposed fragmentation of the Palestinian occupied territories via the Deal of the Century plan would have completely destroyed any future project of Palestinian sovereignty. Multiple members of the incoming administration, such as Mike Walz and Pete Hegseth, have frequently declared their intention to ‘destroy every member of Hamas’ and return ‘Judea and Samaria’ to Israel. The Trump election prompted celebrations from the most fascist settlement enthusiasts in the Israeli political arena for this reason. What is certain is that Trump is not acting out of concern for Palestinian lives, and his promotion of the ceasefire must be based on the benefits for his public image and his foreign policy plans, all of which point to greater antagonism with the international community, including the Palestinian and Arab peoples.
Exactly what pushed the agreement to its conclusion cannot be determined in full certainty. In a moment of such intense volatility, no factor alone can explain the occurrence of events. What will happen next is also unclear; Israel has historically violated its ceasefire agreements: its ongoing violation of the ceasefire in Lebanon is a testament to this fact. Trump’s exact agenda for his new administration and the impact this will have on the genocide against Gaza is still not yet fully visible.
And while much remains unclear, what is absolutely certain is that the resistance to the U.S.-Israeli genocidal occupation will continue. The resistance spirit of the Palestinian people is born in conditions of extreme oppression and displacement, and has not and cannot be broken by military might. The world after Oct. 7, 2023 is a much different world. The normalization efforts with Saudi Arabia and others now have to contend with mass, international condemnation of the Zionist project of Israel as a whole. The U.S. and Israel also must contend with a world in which the masses of people understand, and have witnessed, the necessity of resistance in all of its forms against the U.S.-Israeli colonial project.
The U.S. will also certainly continue to advance in its project of “reshaping the Middle East” into a region without opposition to its hegemony, and with unfettered access to its wealth of resources. The military and economic might of the U.S. will allow it to continue its attempts, and perhaps even see some temporary victories. But the Palestinian people have already reshaped the world. Gaza is now the center of the struggle against imperialism and oppression for the masses of people across the globe. Gaza has become the moral authority, the conscience of the people of the world. The right to resist cannot be revoked, and the true definition of Palestinian liberation is now cemented in the consciousness of all. Any maneuver to redefine or co-opt Palestinian sovereignty will not be able to take place without public outrage and condemnation.
For all those who take part in the movement in solidarity with Palestine and against U.S. imperialism, this is also the moment to advance, to grow, and to invite more to join in our struggle. It is the movement that interprets the situation on the ground to the general public, and the movement for Palestine that redefines right and wrong for a population that is inundated with capitalist, imperialist media and messaging. The ceasefire marks one achievement in the long, international struggle against the grip of U.S. imperial domination; the task now is to continue marching forward, with the knowledge that there are more setbacks and victories waiting for us on our path towards liberation.
