Photo: Opposition fighters pose with a captured jet after seizing control of the city of Hama
The overthrow of the Syrian government in a lightning offensive by rebel groups will certainly reorganize the politics of the Middle East in profound ways and with major global implications. For decades, the U.S. government has tried to control the region through brutal violence, and the Israeli regime is actively waging a war spanning multiple countries as an extension of their genocide in Gaza. Their reactions to the unfolding developments is a crucial indicator about the meaning of recent events.
Both Biden and Netanyahu have claimed credit for the success of the rebel fighters, which are led by Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham. HTS originated as al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, but officially broke ties in 2016 in a move that was supported by the international leadership of al-Qaeda. As Damascus fell, Netanyahu said, “This is a historic day in the history of the Middle East.” Calling the Assad government, “a central link in Iran’s axis of evil,” he argued the overthrow of the government “is a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime.” Biden said in a White House address, “[N]either Russia nor Iran nor Hezbollah could defend this abhorrent regime in Syria. And this is a direct result of the blows that Ukraine, Israel have delivered upon their own self-defense with unflagging support of the United States.”
Israeli troops invaded part of Syria immediately following the demise of the government. Most of a region of southern Syria called the Golan has been occupied by Israel since 1967. There is a United Nations-supervised buffer zone in between the Israeli-occupied portion and the part still controlled by Syria. Israeli forces have now entered that buffer zone, and may move in further. The Israeli air force carried out over 100 strikes in Syria on Dec. 8 and continued airstrikes the following day, hitting key military installations in an attempt to further reduce the country’s ability to defend itself.
There is a current in the Israeli establishment that is highly concerned about how the situation might develop. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the future shape of a new Syrian government and how it will relate to other powers and movements in the region. Although it remained technically in a state of war with Israel and provided key supply routes for resistance fighters, the Assad government was so weak that it never responded as Israel bombed the country routinely for years, starting in 2013.
The various Palestinian resistance organizations held different relationships with the now-ousted Syrian government, and have had a range of reactions to Assad’s overthrow. But they are united in their condemnation of Israel’s attacks on Syria amid the upheaval. How the new government will orient towards Israel is a crucial element to watch, determining whether or not the Syrian state remains a supporter of Palestinian liberation.
In a December 6 interview with the Times of Israel, a commander in the Free Syrian Army – a rebel force that is smaller than HTS but still influential – said that if they succeeded the opposition “will go for full peace with Israel, we will live side by side as neighbors.” Declining to comment on whether or not he is in contact with Israeli officials, the commander did say that rebels “are thankful to Israel for its strikes against Hezbollah and against the Iranian infrastructure in Syria.”
The editor-in-chief of the prominent Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar wrote in an editorial, “The possibility that America will lift sanctions on Syria and allow Arab countries to invest in it again will not please those [Syrians] who believe that they have revolted for their civil rights.” To secure sanctions relief, he argues, Syria “must actually give up the Palestinian issue, not just in words. America will not take any step unless it is sure that the new government will announce Syria’s withdrawal from the Arab-Israeli conflict first, and then join the coalition confronting Iran and the resistance allies in Lebanon and Palestine”
Rapid, complex developments: What do we know and not know?
The situation inside of Syria is highly complex and constantly changing as a new government takes shape. Some facts are clear, but despite a great deal of speculation there is no way to discern with certainty what maneuvers took place behind the scenes in the final days of Assad’s government. After Assad fled the country, he ordered his prime minister to organize an orderly transfer of power, and HTS leader Mohammad al-Julani commanded his fighters to allow government institutions to continue to function as the transition takes place. HTS has chosen Mohammed al-Bashir to take over as prime minister in the coming days. Al-Bashir was the leader of the HTS-dominated government in Idlib province before the breakout offensive, which imposed a conservative, religious form of government. It remains to be seen if other opposition factions will accept his authority or join his government.
There is still fighting taking place across the country between different armed groups. Much of northern and eastern Syria is controlled by a U.S.-backed group called the Syrian Democratic Forces, which has at its core the Kurdish YPG party/militia. Hundreds of U.S. troops and likely many more mercenaries are based in SDF-controlled territory, mainly tasked with controlling oil fields. SDF forces seized the key city Deir ez-Zor on Dec. 6 from government forces.
An armed group called the Syrian National Army that is backed by the Turkish government – the sworn enemy of the YPG and SDF – captured the strategically important town Manbij from SDF fighters on Monday. This is part of a broader anti-Kurdish offensive called “Operation Dawn of Freedom.” Although Turkey and the United States are NATO allies, the SDF is funded by the United States and serves as the key U.S. partner in the war.
There are large public celebrations taking place across Syria. This reflects the widespread discontent that exists about a range of issues, especially the dire economic situation. Since the civil war first broke out in 2011, the country has been subjected to a suffocating battery of U.S. and European-imposed sanctions that have made daily life unbearable for many Syrians. Agricultural production has been badly affected by the division of the country, and fuel scarcity set in as a consequence of U.S. control of the country’s oil fields. While in earlier periods the Ba’athist government followed left-wing economic policies, the country has become increasingly unequal as a small elite lived comfortably despite the deteriorating situation for the rest of the population. This is closely connected with the issue of corruption. And in a country deeply divided by class, region and sect, and lacking participatory political institutions to manage these contradictions, the Syrian government long relied on state violence to maintain social control and keep a lid on them.
In the first phase of the war, over 100,000 Syrians fought and died to prevent the overthrow of the government by the rebels. But that willingness to fight had clearly evaporated, and there was little appetite for intervention among Syria’s allies if there was not a functional national army to support. Where once the threat of sectarian oppression and massacres motivated people to take up arms in defense of the state, the deep impoverishment and breakdown in basic services that characterized recent years had made people more accepting of any alternative that could end the misery.
Given the extremely rapid pace at which the Assad government collapsed, there is naturally suspicion that there were hidden deals and arrangements that played a role. Russia maintains a significant military presence in the country, and the intervention of the Russian air force was decisive in preserving the government in an earlier phase of the war. It is unclear why Russian intelligence failed to provide advanced warning of the HTS offensive, and Russia’s military did not intervene in a significant way against the rebels as they marched towards Damascus.
The day before Assad fled the country, the foreign ministers of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and Russia held a summit and issued a joint declaration urging negotiations between the Syrian government and opposition to find a “political solution to the Syrian crisis.” It is possible that side agreements were made, or that there were behind-the-scenes understandings reached between different powers.
As the government fell, Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi explained that the Syrian government had turned down key Iranian recommendations. He said, “Assad’s government had little flexibility and little speed … We always guided the Syrian government to talk with its opponents in order to resolve the differences between them.” Assad had also turned down recommendations to increase the dismally low pay for soldiers in the country’s conscripted army, as well as earlier efforts by Russia to broker a deal between the government and Kurdish groups to bring YPG-controlled areas back into a federalized Syrian state. The government’s recent overtures to the western-aligned regime in the United Arab Emirates may also have played a role in eroding the unity of the forces that had prevented the rebels from seizing control in the past.
U.S./Israeli hands off Syria!
Syria is subjected to an illegal occupation by U.S. troops. Against the wishes of the sovereign government, the Obama administration deployed thousands of troops to northeastern Syria. Although less populated than other regions, this part of the country is vast and the location of the country’s oil fields. U.S. soldiers and private mercenaries are concentrated near these oil fields.
Another part of Syria, al-Tanf, is controlled by U.S.-backed rebels. There is a U.S. military base in al-Tanf, which is strategically located near the border with Jordan and the border with Iraq.
The U.S. government claims its occupation of Syria is aimed at fighting ISIS. But what actually defeated ISIS was the joint efforts of the Syrian army, Iraqi resistance fighters, Hezbollah, Iran and Russia. And in fact it was the U.S. invasion of Iraq that set in motion the chain of events that led to the rise of ISIS in the first place. The true purpose of the U.S. military presence is to maintain a foothold that can be used to exert imperial power in the region, and bolster the control of their SDF allies.
The U.S. military occupation of Syria must come to an end immediately. All U.S. bases should be dismantled, and all troops and mercenaries should be brought home. Likewise, the Israeli regime – with its U.S.-supplied arsenal – must stop its bombing campaign against Syria and its further invasion of the Golan. The Israeli annexation and occupation of the Golan Heights must end. The future of Syrian society and government is highly uncertain – the United States and Israel should have no role in shaping that future.
