On Oct. 4, the Nigerian government formally ended its amnesty program for militants in the Niger Delta. The program had met with limited success and an uneven response from the militant groups.
Since 2006, an array of groups—most notably the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta—have waged an “oil war” in the region. Daily oil production has fallen from 2.6 million barrels per day in 2005 to 1.7 million this year. Dozens of oil pipelines were sabotaged, and over 200 oil workers were kidnapped. Militant groups are ostensibly protesting the very real and brutal exploitation of the Niger Delta and the major unbalance in the doling out of oil revenues. But the groups are not homogeneous in their purposes or political character.
The militants in the Niger Delta began as armed units paid for and set up by local politicians. Their primary function was to help rig elections. They span the spectrum from outright criminal gangs to groups shaped by muddled political objectives. Increasingly, the government’s failure to respond to militants’ demands for a greater share of the oil wealth has the latter reluctant to cease hostilities.
Oil is Nigeria’s main export, representing around 95 percent of its total exports and 20 percent of its GDP. (CIA World Factbook, Aug. 7) However, roughly 71 percent of the population is engaged in agriculture, primarily for subsistence. At least 54 percent of the country lives on less than $1 a day. Urban unemployment is 12.4 percent, and rural unemployment exceeds 23 percent.
Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars brought in by the oil industry, basic human needs remain unmet. Only 61 percent of Nigerian children have access to primary education, and fewer than 45 percent have access to secondary education. (Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, 2003)
Poverty is most stark in the states of the main oil-producing region, the Niger River Delta. Large swaths of villages have no access to electricity, clean water, health care, jobs or education. A 2006 U.N. report stated that there was only one doctor for every 150,000 people in the Bayelsa and Delta states.
While Nigerian President Yar’Adua has promised development in the Niger Delta, nothing but a military campaign against the militants has been forthcoming. Since 1979, a succession of military and civilian governments have ruled Nigeria and used its oil wealth to enrich a small elite, with 80 percent of the oil revenues accruing to 1 percent of the population. This concentration of wealth has led not only to immense inequalities, but serious corruption as well.
Promised actions have shown few results so far. The newly created Ministry of the Niger Delta has 50 percent of its budget dedicated to a single road project. The previous Nigerian president had announced roughly $22 billion in infrastructure development and job creation by various multi-national corporations from the West and Asia. These projects have also failed to materialize under the current administration, further underscoring the complete absence of progress in alleviating poverty in the region.
Meanwhile, the government’s chief amnesty negotiator is a former head of the Niger Delta Development Commission who was ousted for bribery.
The government plan amounted to bribery, where militants were rewarded with cash for turning in weapons. Some prominent leaders took part in the program. But this month, fighters under a prominent Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta leader came out on the streets to protest the fact that they had received no money from the settlement. It is unclear what the deals struck with various major militant leaders will actually mean for the “peace” process, and an air of uncertainty hangs over Nigeria. MEND has announced an extended ceasefire but will return to fighting if the government refuses to negotiate.
In addition, new militant groups may emerge who are unwilling to negotiate at all. In August, the explosion of a Shell pipeline was claimed by the Urhobo Revolutionary Army, a previously unheard of group, whose name refers to an ethnic group in the Niger Delta.
The government has rejected calls by some MEND leaders to extend the amnesty. There have been reports of the government aiming to acquire more military hardware to launch a “final” offensive in the Niger Delta.
While the future of the Niger Delta conflict is unclear, it is crystal clear that the Nigerian government is far more concerned with protecting its networks of corruption and political patronage than to dealing with the issues of exploitation underlying the violence in the Niger Delta. Whatever happens in the so called “peace process,” conflict will continue as long as Nigeria’s massive oil wealth is not used to tackle the exploitation and underdevelopment of the Niger Delta.
