In South Africa, 2009 has begun much like 2008 ended: with intense political turmoil on top of dire social conditions.
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South Africa’s leading economic role, both regionally and throughout the continent, ensures that the outcome of the 2009 elections could have major repercussions in Africa. This is especially true in the context of the deepening global economic crisis.
During the 52nd Congress of the ANC in 2007, Zuma was elected party leader, consequently becoming the party’s 2009 presidential candidate. Tensions between Zuma’s supporters and those allied to Thabo Mbeki came to a head in the fall of 2008, when Mbeki was forced to step down as president.
Mbeki lacked support amongst the mostly pro-Zuma National Executive Committee of the ANC. At the center of the power struggle was Mbeki’s attempt to prosecute Zuma on charges of corruption regarding the granting of a large defense contract. After a high court ruled in Zuma’s favor, Mbeki was forced to resign.
This led Mosiuoa “Terror” Lekota, a well-known former anti-apartheid activist, to call a political conference in early December 2008. The gathering brought together several thousand activists, and a new party, the Congress of the People (COPE), was formed shortly thereafter.
In 2008 by-elections in the Western Cape, COPE won 10 of 27 wards, the most of any party. While the Western Cape has always been one of the ANC’s weakest provinces, the victory nevertheless further solidified COPE, which has been able to attract several other high-profile former government figures.
The growing strength of COPE has upset the balance of power within the ANC. The ANC is made up of a tripartite alliance: the ANC proper, the South African Communist Party and the trade union federation COSATU. The more left-wing elements, particularly the SACP, have been both acquiescent to and marginalized by neoliberal reforms instituted by the post-apartheid ANC governments. The removal of a number of pro-Mbeki members of the party, however, has recently strengthened the hand of the Communists and Trade Union forces who favor more progressive policies.
Zuma has generally favored a continuation of ANC policies. However, the specter of further corruption charges has increased his dependence on support from allies.
The election manifesto presented by Zuma is clearly crafted to win the support of the more left-wing elements of the ANC alliance. It emphasizes the creation of a strong industrial sector by providing industrial jobs, establishing a national health care system, strengthening public education, and accelerating land reform. The election manifesto also discusses strengthening the state-owned sector of the economy.
However, the manifesto also expresses implicit support for capitalist bailouts with the following language: “Implement special sector programs embracing industrial, trade and other measures backed by adequate resources. This will include the strengthening of the manufacturing, mining, and other vulnerable sectors, and tide them through the period of the global economic crisis. “
Class contradictions shape political forces
This mix of elements reflects the contradictions within the ANC. On the one hand, a number of South African ruling-class figures associated with the ANC have remained inside the party. On the other hand, the SACP and COSATU—despite problems and shortcomings—are a significant bloc with strong ties to the working class.
As pressure mounts on the ANC, party leaders are likely to espouse increasingly left-wing measures in order to strengthen support amongst their working-class and peasant base. The right-wing elements of the party—not to mention the imperialist supporters of the ANC—see these measures as purely tactical maneuvers in the context of an election campaign, but more defections will certainly follow.
Post-election unrest amongst the rank-and-file could also imperil any ANC government that failed to live up to expectations. While the ANC describes itself as a multi-class formation, that position may become less tenable in the face of an accelerating economic crisis, on top of the already precarious socio-economic conditions and inadequate public services.
COPE, for its part, is made up of dissidents and other elements discontented with the ANC, as well as former ANC leadership elements looking to continue the economic policies that have enriched a select Black elite. Its program seeks to balance current ANC policies with an appeal to the ANC’s base in the masses.
COPE is resonating in some traditional ANC constituencies. On Jan. 27, the South African Mail & Guardian newspaper reported that a fierce political battle had erupted between the two groups in Eastern Cape, birthplace of ANC leaders Nelson Mandela and Oliver Tambo.
Social and economic conditions are bound to sharpen the differences between the parties, despite similar platforms at the outset. Official statistics estimate 21.7 percent unemployment, 21.5 percent prevalence of HIV/AIDS, and inflation at over 11 percent. More housing, better public services and infrastructure improvements are all sorely needed. Additionally, campaigns by other progressive parties, such as the Pan-Africanist Congress and Azanian People’s Organisation, will help shape the political discourse leading up to the election.
Reopening a serious debate on issues such as land reform could have explosive consequences across the continent. Land ownership questions in many former African colonies remain essentially unchanged in the post-colonial economies. The issue of public versus private ownership, particularly given that the ANC’s original freedom charter advocated public ownership of the major industries, will also pose a challenge for the advocates of private property and unfettered capitalism.
Within this context, South Africa’s political landscape could be drastically changed. The working class’s steadfast struggle against the ruling-class attacks in the present economic crisis could result in a shift to the left in governance. Similar struggles helped put in place leftist governments in Latin America in recent years. Nothing is certain, but the potential exists.
Revolutionaries and progressive people in the United States should be prepared to stand shoulder to shoulder with the South African people in their progressive struggle. Washington and its allies will certainly weigh in on the side of the most compliant South African political forces, and stop at nothing to halt any developments that jeopardize their regional interests in favor of the needs of the local masses. A powerful movement is needed in the United States and other imperialist countries to fight for the right of oppressed nations to determine their political and economic life freely.
